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Election 2026 · Polling snapshot

How the parties compare

Source: Kiwi Polls · 30-day rolling mean, not demo votes.
30-day trend · latest fieldwork: 19 October 2026

National

28.7%

Labour

27.9%

Green

15.2%

NZ First

10.2%

ACT

9.8%

Opportunity

6.2%

Te Pāti Māori

1.4%

Each bar uses the same 0–100% scale.

Source & how to read these figures

Source: Kiwi Polls · Party by party ↗. Snapshot checked 27 October 2026. These are the latest points on its 30-day rolling mean, with all pollsters selected: 9 polls ending 27 September–19 October, from 6 polling organisations.

This is published polling, not Your Say Today votes, an election result or the Quasimodo forecast. Smaller parties are not shown and figures may not total 100%. This demo snapshot does not update automatically. About the source ↗

Separate model snapshot · 20 October 2026

How the seats could add up

Kiwi Polls’ Quasimodo seat projection — not the polling percentages above, not an election result, and not calculated from your demo choices.

Government bloc61 seats

National · ACT · NZ First
2 below the majority line

Opposition bloc56 seats

Labour · Green · Te Pāti Māori
7 below the majority line

Unaligned7 seats

Opportunity
Not assigned to either bloc

63 seats for a majority in this 124-seat snapshot.

Neither bloc reaches it alone. With all seven Opportunity seats, the Government grouping totals 68; the Opposition grouping totals 63. This is seat arithmetic, not a prediction of negotiations or an endorsement.

See electorate + list seat breakdown

Model estimates, not confirmed electorate winners
Party	Electorate	List	Total
Labour	26	9	35
Green	3	14	17
Te Pāti Māori	4	0	4
Opportunity	0	7	7
NZ First	0	13	13
ACT	1	10	11
National	37	0	37
Total	71	53	124

Source: Kiwi Polls seat projection, checked 27 October 2026; matches your supplied snapshot. Rounded averages across simulations can differ from any one simulated result.

Model assumptions: weighted polling inputs, 50,000 simulated elections, separate general/Māori electorate modelling and MMP allocation. These are uncertain national projections, not individual electorate forecasts. Read the model method ↗. Static demo snapshot; no automatic updates.

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How the parties compare

How the seats could add up

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